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An individual profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from non-public details of the event.

Changing Odds in Wagers

Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the end of January increased in the period preceding President Donald Trump stated on the weekend that the president had been seized.

A particular user, which registered on the site last month and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436K from a modest bet of over $32,000.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement

Market statistics shows that users estimated the likelihood of a political change at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event.

Yet the market's assessment had jumped to over 10% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the first hours of January 3rd, suggesting a sharp shift in positions immediately prior to the official statement was made.

"That trade has all the hallmarks of a bet based on inside information," stated a financial reform advocate.

Several of other platform users also made large payouts from similar wagers.

Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges

Elected officials are starting to take note.

A new rule introduced on the start of the week aims to prohibit government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet.

Market Background

Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the United States, with users able to predict everything from sports to political events.

Prediction markets were examined under the last presidential term. But it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate.

Insider trading is illegal in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting industry.

A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."